UK Economic Forecasts: Rate Cut Looms As Inflation Cools
UK economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics expect the UK economy to grow 0.2% in Q3, citing firm activity data and improving sentiment.
GDP and retail sales have held up better than feared. The flash PMI also shows business confidence edging higher.
The consultancy believes growth will remain modest but steady.
Pantheon noted:
We continue to expect GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4. The economy is proving resilient despite multiple headwinds.
Softer September inflation prompted a significant policy shift.
A below-consensus print of 3.8% led us to cut our inflation forecasts. We have brought forward our call for a Bank Rate cut to December.
Pantheon said it is waiting for clarity on fiscal plans before pencilling in another move.
The Budget could yet be more disinflationary than we expect.
Author's summary: UK economy growth expected to be 0.2% in Q3.
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