Decomposing life expectancy changes in Spain in the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic periods

Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in life expectancy at birth (LE) across Western European countries in 2020, with recovery only observed by 2023. Despite being heavily affected by the pandemic, Spain maintained the highest LE within the European Union. This study aims to analyze changes in Spain's LE from 2019 to 2023 by examining age-specific and cause-of-death contributions, and to compare these findings with the pre-pandemic period from 2010 to 2019.

Methods

Data on life expectancy and mortality rates, segmented by age and major cause-of-death groups, were sourced from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for the years 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The Arriaga decomposition method was employed to estimate age-specific contributions to LE changes. These contributions were then proportionally assigned to each cause of death.

Results

Age groups over 20 years experienced negative contributions to LE in 2020, but most showed positive contributions in subsequent years up to 2023.
Paradoxically, the most impacted age groups in 2020 had positive contributions to LE over the entire 2019–2023 period, whereas those under 45 years still had negative contributions.
Infectious diseases were the primary cause of the steep LE decline in 2020, reducing it by an average of 1.33 years across the population.
The impact was more pronounced in men, with a LE decrease of 1.43 years, compared to 1.16 years in women.

"Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a more severe impact in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years)."

Summary

Spain’s life expectancy decline due to COVID-19 in 2020 varied by age and sex, but recovery efforts have seen positive shifts in most adult age groups by 2023.

Author's Summary

The study reveals nuanced age and cause-specific impacts of COVID-19 on Spain's life expectancy, highlighting recovery trends despite initial sharp declines especially linked to infectious diseases.

BMC Public Health — 2025-11-04