El Niño watch issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Climate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comHere are the latest broad takeaways on El Niño as of May 2026.
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Global pattern status: El Niño conditions are either ongoing in some regions or shifting toward neutral, with forecasts indicating a potential weakening of El Niño activity into neutral or even a brief La Niña-like state later in the year in some models. This reflects typical cycling of the ENSO system, where strong El Niño events often transition to neutral or La Niña in the following seasons. Sources tracking ENSO cycles consistently note that multi-month events usually evolve rather than persist indefinitely. [cite]
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Impacts you can expect in 2026 (high level):
- North America and the Atlantic hurricane season: A weaker El Niño or neutral conditions tend to reduce wind shear over the Atlantic, which can influence hurricane activity. The exact outcome depends on how quickly ENSO shifts and how other regional atmospheric patterns interact. [cite]
- Global precipitation and temperature: El Niño generally brings warmer global temperatures and shifts rainfall patterns in tropical regions, with potential drought stresses in some areas and wetter conditions in others. As the ENSO state fluctuates toward neutral, those signals may ease in some regions but persist in others for a time. [cite]
- Regional notable effects: The southwestern U.S. can see episodic WARM and dry spells during stronger El Niño phases, while parts of Asia-Pacific may experience altered monsoon and rainfall timing, though exact swings depend on the precise ENSO phase and other climate modes. [cite]
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What to monitor this season:
- ENSO indicators: sea surface temperatures across Niño regions, trade wind strength, and air pressure patterns in the equatorial Pacific. These are the primary signals forecasters watch to determine the phase and strength of El Niño or La Niña. [cite]
- Niño-region forecasts: official climate outlooks update monthly; shifts from El Niño toward neutral or La Niña typically show up in 2–6 month outlooks. [cite]
- Regional weather advisories: national meteorological services and climate centers issue guidance on heat, drought, and flood risks aligned with the evolving ENSO state. [cite]
Would you like a concise, region-by-region briefing (e.g., Europe, North America, Africa, Asia-Pacific) with current outlooks and a couple of recommended actions for planners or travelers in Marseille? I can tailor it to your interests and include the latest official forecast windows. If you want, I can also pull the latest forecast maps and summarize key changes for the next 1–3 months.