El Nino and La Nina information
El Nino and La Nina information, including sea surface temperatures, as applied to the pacific basin
www.weather.govHere’s the latest on El Niño vs La Niña as of mid-2026, based on trusted climate agencies and recent summaries.
What’s happening now
- Most forecasts through 2026 project a return to neutral ENSO conditions after the end of La Niña in 2024–2025, with uncertainties about when and if a new El Niño or a weaker La Niña could re-emerge later in the year. This aligns with multiple agencies noting that transitions between phases are common and can be influenced by ocean-atmosphere feedbacks.[3][4]
- Recent assessments continue to emphasize that even when ENSO is neutral, global weather patterns and extremes can remain influenced by lingering ocean heat content and atmospheric drivers from prior El Niño or La Niña events.[4][3]
What El Niño and La Niña mean for weather
- El Niño typically increases global average temperatures and can boost winter precipitation in the southern United States and the heavy rainfall in the eastern Pacific, while La Niña tends to cool global averages and can enhance drought conditions in the southern US and wetter conditions in parts of the Pacific Northwest; however, the exact impacts vary by region and year.[4]
- The transition from one phase to another can lead to unusual or extreme weather in some regions as atmospheric circulation adjusts to the changing sea surface temperatures in the Pacific.[3][4]
Regional considerations for Chicago and the Midwest
- In the Midwest, ENSO phase influences are often indirect (through teleconnections involving jet streams and storm tracks). Neutral conditions or a weakly developing ENSO phase can still produce a range of winter and spring precipitation and temperature patterns; model guidance tends to widen during transitions.[4]
- Current guidance emphasizes staying tuned to updates from NOAA Climate.gov and WMO for region-specific forecasts during transition periods, as confidence tends to be higher for generic ENSO phase than for exact timing of transitions.[7][4]
Key sources to follow for updates
- NOAA Climate.gov ENSO overview for general definitions and current status.[4]
- WMO ENSO updates and regional impact assessments, which regularly publish probability trends for El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions.[6][7][3]
- Climate.gov blogs and official updates discussing end of La Niña and the likely return to neutral conditions, with notes on how forecasts evolve through the year.[9]
If you’d like, I can pull the most recent ENSO update summaries from NOAA and WMO and summarize the exact probabilities for neutral vs El Niño/La Niña for the upcoming quarters, plus provide a short regional outlook for Chicago. I can also generate a simple chart showing the historical frequency of transitions between ENSO phases to illustrate typical patterns. Would you like that?